New Guidelines Predict Fire Behaviour

5 November 2007

The findings of Australia's most extensive study to date of the behaviour of high-intensity bushfires in eucalypt forests - Project Vesta - provides valuable new tools and information for fire managers across Australia.
Officially released in Perth on 2 November by the Western Australian Environment and Climate Change Minister David Templeman, the multi-million dollar study was conducted by the Department of Environment and Conservation, WA, and Ensis, CSIRO's forestry joint venture with New Zealand's Scion.
Ensis Bushfire research leader Jim Gould says the 10-year study provided data to develop a better system for predicting the spread and intensity of wildfires. "Existing systems for predicting forest fire behaviour work well for low-intensity fires such as prescribed burns, but can under-predict the spread of high-intensity summer fires by a factor of three or more," Gould says.
"As a result of this research we have developed a new bushfire spread model for summer wildfires that will provide the basis for a national fire behaviour prediction system for dry eucalypt forests. T
“The study also provides new information of critical importance to firefighter safety by highlighting the sudden jump in speed and intensity of a fire that takes place when a wind change turns a flank-fire into a head-fire," he says.
Former project leader, CSIRO honorary fellow Phil Cheney, says the research resulted in a number of important breakthroughs that will improve the ability of fire agencies to manage fire risk. "This study has enabled us to get a measure of factors that have not previously been quantified, such as establishing the parts of the fuel structure that influence the rate of spread," he says.
"As a result, we now have a vastly improved understanding of the fundamental relationships between fire behaviour and all fuel types of similar structure. This enabled us to develop a new field guide for fire managers that relates fire spread to fuel structure and weather conditions across the entire country whereas, previously, fire behaviour guides were specific only to certain vegetation types.”
Department of Environment and Conservation bushfire scientist Dr Lachie McCaw says one of the key findings from Project Vesta is that hazard reduction by prescribed burning will reduce the rate of spread, flame height and intensity of a fire.
"Prescribed burning will also reduce the number and distance of spot fires by changing the structure of the fuel bed and reducing the fuel load," he says. "These effects may persist for up to 20 years in forests containing rough-barked trees and shrubby under-storeys.

Aussie Dollar Soars

The Aussie dollar has surged past US93 cents for the first time since 1984, soon after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates overnight 31 October.
The domestic currency shot up to a 23-year high of US93.37 cents, the dollar's strongest level since 4 April, 1984, when it closed at US93.93 cents, data from the Reserve Bank of Australia shows.
As the US cut its rates, the prospect of higher rates in Australia also supported the run on the local currency, which has become a much higher returning investment.
Economists almost universally expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise official interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 6.75% at its meeting next week, Melbourne Cup Day, against a background of strengthening inflation and weaker economic data.

US Downturn Hits Boral Earnings

The US housing downturn is expected to shave $43 million from the earnings of building products giant Boral. The widely-expected rise in interest rates in Australia will also hamper Boral’s performance.
Chief executive Rod Pearse told the company’s annual general meeting on 29 October that the downturn in its US earnings would cut 15% from its net profit for fiscal 2008 to $255 million compared with $298 million last financial year.
Pearse said Boral was expecting US housing starts for fiscal 2008 to be as low as 1.1 million compared to recent, revised market forecasts of 1.25 million.
“An interest rate rise will not help,” says Pearse “It will cut against affordability and delay the recovery of the (Australian) housing market, with (housing starts) already running well below underlying levels, particularly in New South Wales, which is about 40 percent below their underlying levels.”

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